ANALISIS KOMPARATIF MODEL SIR NON-LINIER DBD DI SIMALUNGUN DAN DAIRI
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.51903/informatika.v6i2.1977Keywords:
DBD, model SIR, metode Heun, R_{0}, simulasi numerikAbstract
Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) exhibits different transmission dynamics across regions. This study aims to comparatively analyze the simulated spread of DHF in Simalungun Regency and Dairi Regency using a nonlinear Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model. Dengue incidence-rate data from 2024 were used to determine the initial conditions on a normalized population basis of 100,000 inhabitants. The SIR system was solved numerically using the second-order Heun method with a one-day time step over a 160-day simulation period. The analysis included the basic reproduction number ( ), Herd Immunity Threshold (HIT), compartment dynamics, infection peak, peak time, and numerical accuracy evaluation against a reference RK45 solution. The simulation results showed that Simalungun, with and , produced , an HIT of 82.14%, and an infection peak of 51,290.91 on day 39. Dairi, with and , produced , an HIT of 77.27%, and an infection peak of 43,604.73 on day 44. Numerical evaluation resulted in MAPE values of 1.12% for Simalungun and 0.56% for Dairi. The results indicate that differences in the transmission rate affect the magnitude and timing of the infection peak under the model scenarios considered.
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