PREDIKSI HARGA PENUTUPAN SAHAM BBRI DENGAN MODEL HYBRID LSTM-XGBOOST

Authors

  • Nabilah Selayanti UPN "Veteran" Jawa Timur
  • Dwi Amalia Putri UPN "Veteran" Jawa Timur
  • Trimono Trimono UPN "Veteran" Jawa Timur
  • Mohammad Idhom UPN "Veteran" Jawa Timur

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.51903/informatika.v5i1.1011

Keywords:

Harga Saham, Bank BRI, LSTM, XGBoost, Hybrid LSTM-XGBoost

Abstract

The ease of investing in the digital era has driven Generation Z to dominate stock market participation, particularly in blue-chip stocks such as PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia Tbk (BBRI). However, stock price fluctuations influenced by macroeconomic factors, regulations, and global market sentiment make it difficult for investors to make accurate decisions. Decisions based on insufficient information pose a significant risk of loss, especially for novice investors. This study proposes a hybrid LSTM-XGBoost approach for predicting BBRI stock prices, combining the strengths of LSTM in capturing nonlinear time series patterns and XGBoost's effectiveness in reducing prediction errors. The model leverages both historical data and feature extraction outputs from the LSTM model. Future stock price values are then predicted by XGBoost using this combined dataset. The Hybrid LSTM XGBoost model outperforms the individual base models in terms of prediction accuracy, achieving an RMSE of 117.89, MAE of 92.45, and MAPE of 2.21%.

References

[1] G. Permata Gusti, R. Triadi Yuliarto, and U. Andrey Indra Maulana, “Analisis Kinerja Saham Unggulan Tahun 2023: Kenaikan Luar Biasa Dan Dampaknya Terhadap Rerata Transaksi Harian Di Pasar Saham Indonesia,” Manajemen Business Innovation Conference-MBIC, 2024, [Online]. Available: https://jurnal.untan.ac.id/index.php/MBIC/index

[2] D. A. Pangestu et al., “Model Perlindungan Investor Ritel di Pasar Modal Indonesia dengan Menggunakan Variabel Kelayakan Investor, Pengawasan Market Conduct dan Struktur Penyelenggara Pasar Modal,” Journal of Management, Economics, and Entrepreneur, vol. 3, no. 2, 2024, [Online]. Available: https://ejourna/.iainu-kebumen.ac.id/index.php/maen

[3] Trimono and F. Agista, “Seminar Nasional Informatika Bela Negara (SANTIKA) Model ARMA-GARCH Prediksi Value-at-Risk pada Saham,” Seminar Nasional Informatika Bela Negara (SANTIKA), vol. 2, 2021, doi: https://doi.org/10.33005/santika.v2i0.127.

[4] M. Mushliha, “Implementasi CNN-BiLSTM untuk Prediksi Harga Saham Bank Syariah di Indonesia,” Jambura Journal of Mathematics, vol. 6, no. 2, pp. 195–203, Aug. 2024, doi: 10.37905/jjom.v6i2.26509.

[5] C. Tania Emanuella, A. Lawi, and Hendra, “Model Prediksi Harga Saham Apple Inc Pada Beberapa Bursa Efek Menggunakan Metode Multivariate Gated Recurrent Unit,” 2022.

[6] A. Rosyd, A. Irma Purnamasari, and I. Ali, “Penerapan Metode Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) Dalam Memprediksi Harga Saham PT Bank Central Asia,” 2024.

[7] D. Agustina and D. Prima Sari, “Analisis Algoritma LSTM dan SVR untuk Memprediksi Saham Perbankan di Pasar Indonesia,” 2022.

[8] E. H. Yulianti, O. Soesanto, and Y. Sukmawaty, “Penerapan Metode Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBOOST) pada Klasifikasi Nasabah Kartu Kredit,” JOMTA Journal of Mathematics: Theory and Applications, vol. 4, no. 1, 2022.

[9] M. T. Hidayat and M. Sulistiyono, “Analisis Performa Algoritma XGBoost, GRU, dan Prophet dalam Peramalan Penjualan Obat untuk Optimasi Rantai Pasok Farmasi,” Jurnal Pendidikan dan Teknologi Indonesia, vol. 5, no. 1, pp. 65–73, Jan. 2025, doi: 10.52436/1.jpti.562.

[10] A. Rosyd, A. Irma Purnamasari, and I. Ali, “Penerapan Metode Long Short Term Memory (Lstm) Dalam Memprediksi Harga Saham Pt Bank Central Asia,” 2024.

[11] B. Jange, “Prediksi Harga Saham Bank BCA Menggunakan XGBoost,” ARBITRASE: Journal of Economics and Accounting, vol. 3, no. 2, pp. 231–237, Nov. 2022, doi: 10.47065/arbitrase.v3i2.495.

[12] H. Oukhouya, H. Kadiri, K. El Himdi, and R. Guerbaz, “Forecasting International Stock Market Trends: XGBoost, LSTM, LSTM-XGBoost, And Backtesting XGBoost Models,” Statistics, Optimization and Information Computing, vol. 12, no. 1, pp. 200–209, 2024, doi: 10.19139/soic-2310-5070-1822.

[13] M. Sahroni, F. Arif, and M. Misdram, “Stock Price Prediction Using The Long Short-Term Memory Method,” Jurnal Teknik Informatika (JUTIF), vol. 5, no. 6, pp. 1769–1777, 2024, doi: 10.52436/1.jutif.2024.5.6.2615.

[14] L. Semmelmann, S. Henni, and C. Weinhardt, “Load forecasting for energy communities: a novel LSTM-XGBoost hybrid model based on smart meter data,” Energy Informatics, vol. 5, Sep. 2022, doi: 10.1186/s42162-022-00212-9.

[15] Y. Zhu, “Stock Price Prediction based on LSTM and XGBoost Combination Model,” 2023.

[16] X. Huang et al., “A Hybrid ARIMA-LSTM-XGBoost Model with Linear Regression Stacking for Transformer Oil Temperature Prediction,” Energies (Basel), vol. 18, no. 6, Mar. 2025, doi: 10.3390/en18061432.

[17] A. A. Saputra, B. N. Sari, C. Rozikin, U. Singaperbangsa, and K. Abstrak, “Penerapan Algoritma Extreme Gradient Boosting (Xgboost) Untuk Analisis Risiko Kredit,” Jurnal Ilmiah Wahana Pendidikan, vol. 10, no. 7, pp. 27–36, 2024, doi: 10.5281/zenodo.10960080.

[18] A. Syahreza, N. K. Ningrum, and M. A. Syahrazy, “Perbandingan Kinerja Model Prediksi Cuaca: Random Forest, Support Vector Regression, dan XGBoost,” Edumatic: Jurnal Pendidikan Informatika, vol. 8, no. 2, pp. 526–534, Dec. 2024, doi: 10.29408/edumatic.v8i2.27640.

[19] A. Ajder, H. A. A. Hamza, and R. Ayaz, “Wavelet-Enhanced Hybrid LSTM-XGBoost Model for Predicting Time Series Containing Unpredictable Events,” IEEE Access, 2025, doi: 10.1109/ACCESS.2025.3556540.

[20] A. Tholib, N. K. Agusmawati, and F. Khoiriyah, “Prediksi Harga Emas Menggunakan Metode LSTM Dan GRU,” Jurnal Informatika dan Teknik Elektro Terapan, vol. 11, no. 3, Aug. 2023, doi: 10.23960/jitet.v11i3.3250.

Downloads

Published

2025-05-19